NBA Predictions - Western Conference

There was just so much on my mind about the NBA yesterday, that I decided to break up my ideas into Conferences. It also makes it so that perhaps tomorrow I can make my playoff predictions as far as who wins what. I know, a bold move just days after the draft and days before the Free Agency period. We'll see though.

This time around I'm going to do my thoughts on more of a team-by-team capsule basis - for one, because I know Western Conference teams better than I do the East, and that way I can make sure and stay on topic and not go all over the place. I'll provide their projected finish in parenthesis.

Southwest Division

San Antonio: These "new look" Spurs may be running with the pack in the West next year. The problem is however their lack of depth. Sure they've got Ginobli, Parker, Duncan, and now Jefferson - but they gave up one of their biggest defensive threats in Bruce Bowen with the trade for Jefferson. George Mason figures to come off the bench as a key 6th-Man since Ginobli and Parker take up the guard spots, he naturally finds himself there. Duncan may have to play more Center than anything - since they gave away two of their centers, including their former starter in Oberto. DeJuan Blair may have just been the steal of the draft - falling all the way into the 2nd Round for the Spurs to grab. If he can stay healthy, he'll be a formidable piece of the Spurs frontcourt. The bigger question mark is the durability of Ginobli and the aging of Duncan. In a very tight division - one that went down to the final couple of games this last season, the Spurs cannot afford to take chances, and every loss will hurt. (2nd in Division, 4th Seed)

New Orleans: The Hornets have stayed relatively quiet on the player movement front. Its a good thing too, they don't have any money to spend for any Free Agents. They used their sole draft pick on a PG that will be a solid backup to Paul. They have three expiring contracts and really might not need any of them to come back - Ely would be nice to bolster the center position, but Marks and Bowen are replaceable...but their replacements may not be as cheap as the originals. If Peja stays healthy the whole year, and they can exchange Chandler for useful parts, or make sure that he's mobile in the center spot, then the Hornets will be a force to be reckoned with. In a surprise upset, the take the division crown from the Spurs on the final day of the season. (Division Champ, 3rd Seed)

Houston: The Rockets are well...one giant delayed launch at this point. There's so many questions surrounding them that no one can really make anything of them at this point. What we do know is that they took the Lakers to a thrilling seven game set in the 2nd Round of the 2009 playoffs. The bad news though, is that it was during the Playoffs - where desperate times call for desperate measures. Sustaining that kind of momentum through a seven game series is one thing, doing it over an 82 game season is another. No, these Rockets are coming back to earth and may be worse off than anyone thinks. Yao Ming may not even be back at all...ever. The broken foot isn't healing properly, and the timetable for his return is now "indefinite." That's 15M on the books that can't be moved (he was linked to a few trade rumors at some point). Add in McGrady's 20M on the books - for a player that plays once in a blue moon, and it puts the Rockets in a world of hurt. Already 11M over the cap, the Rockets won't be major players in F.A., so they are pretty much stuck with what they have. Their only draft-day acquisition came through a trade with Denver and the rights so some Spanish PG. With Ron Artest probably leaving via F.A. and Dikembe Mutumbo having not only an expiring contract, but two terrible knees, that leaves the Rockets...well not flying very high. In a tough division that gets tougher with the acquisition of Jefferson by the Spurs, and a fully-healthy Hornets team, the Rockets cannot expect a 5th seed again this year, not in the 2010 Western Conference. They'll be lucky to catch a playoff spot, if they do, it'll be low. For now, we'll count them out unless we see otherwise. (4th in Division, 10th Overall)

Dallas: The Mavs will be in a hotly contested battle all season...for 3rd in the division. There is no way they overtake the Hornets and Spurs this year, and the Rockets are only overtaken since they are going in the wrong direction, and the Grizzlies...well they pose about the same threat as Winnie the Pooh. Thus, 3rd won't be too hard to take in this division. The question is - do they want it? Jason Kidd is set to leave via F.A., and the off-court distractions of Nowitzki may become team distractions next season. Add in the fact that the Mavs are one of the most over-budget teams in the league this year, and they've got some huge problems ahead. Though the Mavs did get the rights to some French PG (and International players have thrived in this division), that won't be the problem to all their woes. Even if they bring back Kidd, they are bringing back the 36 year old version of the guy, not the four-time NBA Defensive First Teamer. Howard and Terry will provide backcourt support to the big-men, but there's no depth of the bench after that. Its going to be a long season for Dallas, especially with no first-round pick in 2010 as a result of the Jason Kidd trade. (3rd in Division, 8th Seed)

Memphis: In a not-so stunning announcement following the 2009 NBA Draft, commissioner David Stern has announced that the Memphis Grizzlies, along with the Los Angeles Clippers, Sacramento Kings, Indiana Pacers, New York Knicks, and Minnesota Timberwolves are being tabbed as the "NBA Farm Teams." When asked about the sudden change, Stern responded: "Well, we did it purely for economic reasons, especially with Memphis. I had no idea when we approved the creation of the Vancouver Grizzlies almost 15 years ago, that they would be forced out of Canada - even the Expos lasted longer than the Grizzlies. Its in the best interest of the league to allow these teams to drop to minor-league status so that the high level of competition can be maintained." When asked about future plans for replacing the newly demoted teams, Stern noted that "The Ohio State University basketball team, as well as the basketball teams from Syracuse University, University of Minnesota, University of Kentucky, and Georgetown University have all been contacted to sign their entire teams as package deals and fill the void that was partially filled by getting rid of these other underwhelming teams." Okay, so we wish that were true, but its not. Instead, the Memphis Grizzlies live to lose another year. A package of misfits, and long-shots, the Grizzlies will be closer in competition to the 1st Overall Pick in the 2010 Draft than they will a playoff spot. In an effort to increase their futility, Memphis' traded away Darco Milicic on draft-day, only to acquire someone equally as useless in Quentin Richardson from the Knicks. The outlook gets better though - because Memphis is one of the few teams in the league that has money to spend. This means that Grizzlies ownership will be on the lookout for players who will compliment their current roster and keep them in the quagmire of mediocrity. The one key player they did have - Pau Gasol - just won a championship with the Lakers by the way. Poor Hasheem Thabeet - let's hope that his English is a lot worse than previously thought, let's face it - his tears on draft night weren't of joy - they were the realization that his career is ruined even before it began. (5th in Division, 14th Overall)

Northwest Division

Denver: So they were a little overhyped last season. Their coming from a three-team division probably didn't help matters either (let's face it, the other two teams were about as formidable as the French army fully armed). Denver is over the cap, so they won't have a lot of room to spend in the offseason, but that might not be a bad thing. They will want to bring back their breakout player of 2009 - Chris "Birdman" Andersen, but the other guys with expiring contracts aren't a huge deal. If it weren't for Kenyon Martin's 14.4M contract, they'd be in great shape, but one wonders how much he really contributes to the team. Denver will be in it again in 2010, but this time emerging as the winner of a four-team division, and not by much. Hopefully the season will toughen them up for another long playoff run and a potential Conference Finals meeting with the Spurs or Lakers. These are the NBA's new "Bad Boys" (Division Champ, 2nd Seed)

Oklahoma City: Ladies and gentlemen, your Seattle Sup..er...I mean Oklahoma City Thunder! They've got a legitimate shot at the playoffs in 2010. Their acquisition of former Ohio State backup Center B.J. Mullens on draft night will help them defensively (he was used primarily as a defensive center in college). Their acquisition of James Harden with the 3rd overall pick of the 2009 draft, combined with the talents of Westbook and Durrant will provide a solid core to build a team around. With big money coming off the cap, they could be players in Free Agency to grab another big name. They may only get 4th in a competitive division, but that may be enough to get them into the playoffs for the first time as the Thunder. (4th In Division, 7th Seed).

Portland: After taking the Houston Rockets to 6 games in the 2009 playoffs, the Trail-Blazers proved that they are no joke. Granted, their drafting of a largely useless paperweight in Greg Oden can provide enough joke fodder for everyone, Portland is no laughing matter, and may even contend for the division crown in 2010. If they fall short though, they are likely going to have an uphill battle all the way through the 2010 playoffs, because there are just too many good teams ahead of them taking the other top four seeds. The Blazers lack a big man with skill - which could prove to be their downfall. Though the balance of big-men has somewhat shifted East, they do need someone to guard the perimeter. They'll keep teams on their toes though. (2nd in Division, 5th Seed)

Utah: As much as it pains me to say this about my favorite team, they aren't that good. Sure, they are rebuilding, and may rise up from the ashes again soon, but let's not have Championship hopes up just yet. Those were closest during the Malone-Stockton-Hornacek era. Deron Williams can't get it done on his own. The Jazz desperately need to get Millsap back, and as for Boozer who comes off the books after next year, they might try and hang him out as bait sooner to see who they can get. Millsap is a cheaper version of Boozer anyways, so they can re-sign him and get something for their otherwise junk investment in Boozer. Else, they can try and sign him to an extension this season at his word, and hope that he bolts for another team?... They just don't have enough to win the division, and they might be fighting for the playoffs. As long as its not another 1st round beating at the hands of the Lakers though, I'm sure they'll be thrilled (3rd in Division, 6th Seed)

Minnesota: Psst...does anyone want to buy a PG? We got all types and shapes and sizes. As it turns out, we traded a couple already, and the one we picked as our top PG may not even want to play for us! We don't even have Kevin McHale to blame for this one, and our former PF has already won a championship in Boston. At least we got draft picks...and there's 2011...or 12...right? (5th in Division, 13th Overall)

Pacific Division

Phoenix: Steve Kerr probably wishes he hadn't taken the GM job by now. This team is terrible! They may not even have Stoudemire by the time the season starts. You know its a rough time in Suns existence when a banged-up, washed-up SF such as Grant Hill is a starter. Sure, they've got a two-time MVP in Steve Nash, but they've also got lifetime membership in AARP for him too. He may become the first NBA player to use a walker for assistance during the player introductions as bad as his knee is. Championships aren't won with "great passers" like Nash is. By the All-Star break, we may hear him wonder aloud if he can get assists for his own shots since the rest of his team sucks. (4th In Division, 12th Overall)

Golden State I like the Stephen Curry pick. He'll provide a solid shooter for them with lots of points. With all the other threats they've got in place, as well as their relative youth, they may be contenders for a playoff spot...only because no one else wants it...or maybe just 2011. I don't think they've got enough to get it done though, plus it may take all season just to wake the coach. After that, they'll cast lots to see who will be in the starting lineup that night - heck we may see them pull a Minnesota Timberwolves and try to start 5 PG's all at once if it starts going really badly. They'll get better than some of the others with huge drop offs though. (2nd in Division, 9th Overall)

Los Angeles Clippers: They'll get better! They can't get any worse. The addition of Blake Griffin will help. Unlike most other teams in the league though, the Clippers face a unique dilemna - too many big men. Maybe they can trade one of them off and pick up a serviceable player. They won't be playoff caliber just yet, but one more season of futility may just get them there! (3rd in Division, 11th Overall)

Sacramento: This doesn't look pretty...at all. The Kings may be tempted to storm the Governor's Mansion and take Arnold hostage and force him to suit up for games, just so they've got a strong big-man in the middle. Its not going to go well at all. They may even try to duplicate the Detroit Lions futility by not winning a game all season, and if that doesn't work, they'll just start taking 2-pt shots into their own goal. It worked for Dan Orlorvsky right? Their first problem has to do with their coaching - bringing back a coach that was relevant only 15 years ago, and making him the 5th coach in 4 seasons. Being owned by the Maloofs though helps them to take gambles more often. In a cruel twist of fate though - despite having the best odds of getting the 1st pick in the 2010 draft, they'll fall all the way to 4th, only to be beat out by the Clippers, T-Wolves, and Pacers for the top three picks. That's Vegas odds at their finest! (5th in Division (6th if the NBA convinces UCSB to join), 15th Overall)

Los Angeles Lakers I make no bones about the fact that I hate the Lakers. Unfortunately, they are the reigning NBA champions, and the took the West in easy fashion last year. One can only hope that Kobe Bryant gets fouled hard by Shaq on Christmas Day and suffers a broken clavicle that will ruin the rest of the season for them. Unfortunately, I don't see that happening. Bynum may finish a full season, and they could re-sign Odom (as bad as he is) and Ariza and be back to their 2009 Playoff roster...only all year. We'll see. For now though, they are the pick to win the West. :-( (Division Champ, 1st Seed)

There you have it folks, all long and drawn out. Enjoy!